Quick Hit:

With concerns about President Joe Biden’s age affecting his reelection chances, a new poll reveals Vice President Kamala Harris faces significant skepticism about her ability to win the presidency or perform the job effectively if she inherits it.

Key Details:

• A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows only a third of voters think Harris could win if she became the Democratic nominee, with just three out of five Democrats believing she would prevail.

• Forty-two percent of voters view Harris as a strong leader, including three-quarters of Democrats but only a third of independents.

• Both Harris and Biden have poor favorability ratings, with Harris at 42% favorable and 52% unfavorable, and Biden at 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

Diving Deeper:

As voter concern grows over President Joe Biden’s age and its impact on his reelection bid, Vice President Kamala Harris is also under scrutiny. A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll reveals that only a third of voters believe Harris would win an election if she became the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, just three out of five think she would succeed, and only a quarter of independents share that confidence.

Harris' leadership is also questioned. Only 42% of voters describe her as a strong leader, with three-quarters of Democrats but only a third of independents agreeing. This skepticism extends to her potential role as head of her party. Both Harris and Biden suffer from poor favorability ratings, with Harris at 42% favorable and 52% unfavorable, and Biden at 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable.

Harris has made some gains among important Democratic constituencies. She now outperforms Biden among Black voters and has extended her lead over potential rivals in a hypothetical 2028 matchup. Additionally, she polls well on issues like abortion but lags on others such as immigration.

Despite these efforts, the overall findings suggest Harris is unlikely to alleviate voter anxiety about a potential Biden succession. Attitudes towards her could play a significant role in the campaign, especially given Biden’s age.

Harris has faced a challenging tenure marked by early missteps, a difficult portfolio including immigration, and internal staff upheaval. Despite spending considerable time on the road, voters often question why they don’t see and hear more from her.

The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll also shows Biden and Trump tied at 45% each, with Democrats deploying significant funds in TV ads to tout the administration’s accomplishments. Despite Harris’ efforts to rebrand herself, negative perceptions from early in her tenure persist, though she has a rare chance in the coming months to change that.

Overall, Harris’ favorability has been stagnant, but she has made inroads with key voter groups, including Black and Hispanic voters. Her favorability among Black voters is 67% versus 23% unfavorability, a notable shift from past numbers.

As the 2024 campaign approaches, Harris’ place on the ticket remains contentious. Thirty-six percent of voters think Biden should replace Harris with another Democrat, while 39% want him to stick with Harris. A significant share of Democrats and independents believe she should be removed as vice president.

The poll indicates Harris leads in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary but faces significant doubts about her ability to win a general election. Only 34% of voters think she could win the presidency, with 57% expressing doubts. The poll, which surveyed 3,996 registered voters, underscores the divided opinions about Harris’ future prospects and her current role.