Quick Hit:

In the latest Swing State tracker poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, former President Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in seven out of nine potential swing states, following Joe Biden's recent announcement to end his re-election bid.

Key Details:

• Trump holds leads over Harris in Arizona by three points, in Florida by eight points, in Georgia by seven points, in Michigan by three points, in Nevada by two points, in North Carolina by three points, and in Pennsylvania by four points. They are tied in Wisconsin, each garnering 44% of the vote, and Harris leads Trump in Minnesota by three points, 44% to 41%.

• Trump's lead over Harris has widened in Florida, increasing to an eight-point margin, and in Michigan, expanding to a three-point lead. His lead remains unchanged in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, Trump's lead has narrowed slightly in Arizona by one point to three points, in Nevada by one point to two points, and in North Carolina by three points to three points.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polls between 3% and 7% in swing states, taking more votes from Democrats than Republicans. His highest support is in Michigan at 7% and lowest in Georgia at 3%.

Diving Deeper:

Former President Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in seven out of nine swing states according to the latest Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released Friday. Specifically, Trump holds a lead in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The poll shows a tie in Wisconsin, with each candidate garnering 44% of the vote, while Harris leads in Minnesota by three points, 44% to 41%.

The results indicate a shift from last week's polling when Biden was still in the race. Trump's lead over Harris is more pronounced in Florida, expanding by one point to an eight-point margin, and in Michigan, increasing by two points to a three-point lead. His lead remains steady in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, Trump's lead has narrowed slightly in Arizona by one point to three points, in Nevada by one point to two points, and in North Carolina by three points to three points.

In the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden carried most of these swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Trump secured victories in Florida and North Carolina. The inclusion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as an independent candidate complicates the dynamics, as his support ranges from 3% to 7% across the swing states, with his strongest performance in Michigan at 7% and weakest in Georgia at 3%. Notably, Kennedy's presence seems to siphon more votes from the Democratic ticket, potentially benefiting Trump.

The poll also highlights voter sentiment regarding Biden's decision not to run for re-election. Voters in all nine states overwhelmingly support his decision, with net approval ratings ranging from +50% in Georgia to +62% in Wisconsin. A significant plurality of voters in these states, between 40% and 46%, prefer Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, though a notable minority, between 26% and 32%, would prefer another candidate.

Economic concerns dominate voters' priorities, with the economy cited as the most important issue in every swing state. Other critical issues include abortion, immigration, cost of living, healthcare, and election integrity.

In addition to the Presidential race, the poll also examines key Senate and Gubernatorial races in Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Nevada, Democratic candidate Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown, 45% to 40%. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. leads Republican David McCormick by seven points, 46% to 39%. In North Carolina, Democratic candidate Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson by four points, 38% to 34%.

President Biden's approval rating remains underwater in all swing states except Minnesota, where he enjoys a +3% net approval. Vice President Harris fares slightly better, with positive approval ratings in Arizona, Georgia, Minnesota, and Nevada. Trump, meanwhile, has a positive favorability rating in four states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.