Quick Hit:

House Republicans are demanding answers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) over a key dataset often cited as evidence for the intensification of climate change. Lawmakers allege that the data may be misleading and fail to account for critical economic variables.

Key Details:

• House Republicans wrote to NOAA demanding clarity on the "billion-dollar disasters" (BDD) dataset.
• Lawmakers argue the BDD data does not adjust for factors like GDP growth and increasing property values, skewing its implications about climate change.
• The dataset has been used by the Biden administration to justify halting new natural gas export terminals and other policies.

Diving Deeper:

House Republicans are turning up the heat on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) over a key dataset that the Biden administration frequently cites to bolster its climate change agenda. In a letter addressed to NOAA Administrator Richard Spinrad on Wednesday, members of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee demanded clarification regarding several aspects of NOAA's "billion-dollar disasters" (BDD) dataset.

The lawmakers are questioning the integrity of the BDD dataset, which tracks the number of U.S. disasters costing over a billion dollars in damages each year. Critics argue that the dataset's use of economic damages as a metric for climate change is flawed, as it does not adjust for economic growth, inflation, or the increasing value of properties in high-risk areas. This failure to account for these factors, the letter suggests, may misrepresent the true intensity and frequency of climate-related disasters.

"Since the 1990s, NOAA has published annual reports showing the number of disasters that have cost more than a billion dollars in damages," the letter states. "Debate around the validity of the reports’ methodologies has resulted in NOAA making incremental but important changes. However, despite adjustments for inflation, the reports have not been adjusted for increases in population or wealth in the same capacity."

The lawmakers, led by Republican Reps. Frank Lucas (OK), Max Miller (OH), and Jay Obernolte (CA), expressed concerns that this lack of comprehensive data could lead to overestimated impacts of climate change. They also questioned why NOAA has not adjusted its data to reflect increases in population or wealth, noting that even minor storms could appear more destructive simply because of economic growth and not necessarily because climate change has intensified.

The Biden administration has used the BDD dataset in key climate policy decisions, including citing it in a 2023 flagship climate report and to justify a pause on new liquefied natural gas export terminals. Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk referenced the dataset during his testimony before Congress in February as evidence supporting the administration's policies.

The letter also claims that NOAA's adjustments for inflation are inconsistent and that its methodology for compiling BDD data is opaque, making independent replication and verification nearly impossible. The lawmakers called on Spinrad to disclose the scientific basis for linking BDD data to climate change and to explain why the agency does not adjust the data for economic factors like population growth and wealth increases.

Roger Pielke Jr., a critic of the BDD dataset and former environmental studies professor at the University of Colorado, raised similar concerns in a correction request submitted to NOAA in January. In response, NOAA announced it would take steps to improve the transparency of its data but maintained that the BDD dataset meets its standards for influential scientific information.