Quick Hit:

President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Minnesota, but his supporters are less enthusiastic than the Republicans.

Key Details:

• The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota poll found Biden with a 45%-41% lead over Trump ahead of their anticipated general election rematch. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided, and 6% supported independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

• Biden's lead is largely driven by a 45-point advantage in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, home to Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Trump leads in other counties of the Twin Cities area by 12 percentage points.

• The poll revealed an enthusiasm gap: 63% of Trump supporters are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate compared to only 31% of Biden supporters.

Diving Deeper:

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, a new poll indicates President Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Minnesota. The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll, conducted from June 3 to June 5, shows Biden leading with 45% support compared to Trump's 41%. The poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Biden's lead is primarily driven by a strong advantage in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, where he holds a 45-point edge over Trump. Conversely, Trump is leading in other counties in the Twin Cities area by 12 percentage points. Despite Biden's overall lead, the poll reveals a significant enthusiasm gap: 63% of Trump supporters are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, compared to only 31% of Biden supporters.

The Democratic coalition in Minnesota and the U.S. has shown fractures over Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with many on the left criticizing his support for Israel and calling for more actions to prevent civilian casualties in Gaza. However, few poll respondents mentioned the war as their top issue.

The poll results indicate that Minnesotans' top concerns are "protecting democracy," the economy and jobs, and immigration. Trump supporters prioritize the economy and immigration, while Biden voters focus on protecting democracy and climate change. Demographic breakdowns show Biden leading among women, nonwhite voters, and college graduates, whereas Trump has larger support from men and individuals without college degrees. The two candidates are nearly tied among white voters, with Trump having an edge among older voters and Biden garnering more support from those under 50.

Among independent voters, Trump and Biden are effectively tied, with 13% of independents backing Kennedy and 12% undecided. Brandon Nelson, a 35-year-old autism therapist from St. Paul, remains undecided, citing dissatisfaction with all major candidates. "I don't feel like the United States has shown any sort of moral leadership on that issue whatsoever," Nelson said regarding the Israel-Hamas war. "The ongoing fighting and the thousands and thousands of civilian deaths cannot possibly be our best option."

The poll also highlights that 53% of voters disapprove of Biden's job performance, while 52% disapprove of Trump's presidency. In contrast, Democratic U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar received higher approval ratings, with 55% of Minnesotans approving her job performance and 36% disapproving. However, Klobuchar's approval rating has declined since 2017, when it stood at 72%. She is seeking a fourth term in the U.S. Senate this November.