Quick Hit:

A CNN poll released Wednesday shows Republican Dave McCormick and incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey tied at 46% in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race. With control of the Senate at stake, McCormick is intensifying his attacks on Casey, particularly on the issue of immigration and fentanyl, positioning the contest as one of the most crucial of the 2024 election.

Key Details:

• According to CNN's latest poll, both McCormick and Casey are locked in a 46% tie.

• Fox News polling from July also showed that immigration and the economy remain top concerns for Pennsylvania voters, with 16% prioritizing immigration and 39% naming the economy as their most important issue.

• McCormick is focusing his campaign on Casey's handling of immigration and the fentanyl crisis, with new ads directly targeting Casey’s record on securing the southern border.

Diving Deeper:

A CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Wednesday reveals a deadlocked race between Republican Dave McCormick and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat, with both candidates receiving 46% support among likely voters. The tight contest signals that Pennsylvania will once again be a pivotal battleground, as control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance.

As McCormick gains momentum, his campaign has sharpened its focus on key issues like immigration and the ongoing fentanyl crisis, which have resonated with Pennsylvania voters. In a new ad released after Labor Day, Blair County Sheriff Jim Ott speaks emotionally about losing his son to a fentanyl overdose. "If the border was secure, chances are my son would be alive today," Ott states, directly blaming Casey for what he describes as a lack of action on border security.

McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO and Army veteran, has consistently pointed to the Biden administration’s policies, which he argues Casey has supported, as exacerbating the border crisis and contributing to the influx of fentanyl into the state. His campaign is banking on immigration as a top issue for voters, as a Fox News poll from July found that 16% of Pennsylvania voters identified immigration as their most pressing concern, second only to the economy, which 39% of respondents prioritized.

Pennsylvania is a critical swing state in the 2024 presidential election, and McCormick could benefit from a strong performance by former President Donald Trump, who is expected to campaign heavily in the state through November. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted last month showed Casey leading McCormick by a margin of 52% to 44%, but GOP strategists believe the post-Labor Day phase of the campaign could see more voters shift toward McCormick as they solidify their choices.

As the Pennsylvania Senate race enters its final stretch, both candidates will intensify their campaigns to win over undecided voters. McCormick has worked to present himself as a stronger candidate on economic issues and immigration, while Casey seeks to leverage his incumbency and bipartisan record.