Quick Hit:
A confidential memo from Trump campaign strategists highlights Donald Trump's 2-point lead over Kamala Harris in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, crediting Trump’s overperformance with minority and young voters.

Key Details:

• Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% in the national poll.

• Trump is outperforming his 2020 numbers with Black (+5), Hispanic (+10), and young voters (+10).

• Harris is struggling to maintain Biden's 2020 support, especially among minority and young voters.

Diving Deeper:
A confidential memo from Trump campaign strategists, obtained by this publication, offers key insights into the latest New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 3-6, 2024. The memo emphasizes that Donald Trump holds a 2-point lead over Kamala Harris, securing 48% of the vote to her 46%, in a direct head-to-head matchup.

The memo, which was shared with MxM News, highlights Trump’s significant gains among Black, Hispanic, and young voters compared to the 2020 election. Trump has improved his standing with Black voters by 5 points and Hispanic voters by 10 points, while Harris is underperforming Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers with these key demographics. Among young voters aged 18-29, Trump is trailing Harris by just 1 point (46% to 47%), a major improvement from his 2020 showing in this group.

Campaign insiders attribute Harris's decline among minority and young voters to her association with the Biden administration’s policies, which have been met with dissatisfaction. "No matter which competing team is in charge of the Harris campaign on a given day, they have a consistent strategy of playing defense," the memo states, pointing out that Harris’s team is focusing heavily on damage control rather than expanding her base of support.

Additionally, the memo underscores that Trump continues to exceed expectations in polls, particularly from outlets like the New York Times and Siena College, which have historically underrepresented his support. The memo calls attention to inconsistencies in battleground state polls from August, where the electorate reflected margins from 2020 that were "nowhere near reality."

Ultimately, the Trump campaign sees this latest poll as further confirmation that Trump is in a strong position as the election approaches, with Harris struggling to gain ground. According to the memo, when polls reflect the actual electorate, Trump’s lead becomes apparent.

As the election nears, both campaigns face mounting pressure, with Trump’s gains among key demographics posing a significant challenge for Harris to overcome.