Quick Hit:

A recent Roanoke College poll indicates a tie between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden in Virginia—a state Biden won by a significant margin in 2020.

Key Details:

• Even Match: Trump and Biden each garnered 42% support among likely voters in Virginia, with a significant 16% opting for other candidates or remaining undecided.
• Third-Party Influence: Including third-party candidates, Biden slightly leads Trump 40% to 38%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerges as a notable contender with 8% support.
• Historical Context: Virginia, traditionally a blue stronghold since 2008, shows unexpected competitiveness in current polling.

Diving Deeper:

A new Roanoke College poll has revealed that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 42% support among likely voters in the state, a place Biden previously won by a 10-point margin in 2020. This deadlock is particularly shocking given Virginia's two-decade history of favoring Democratic presidential candidates.

The survey, conducted between May 12 and 21, sampled 711 Virginia residents and has a margin of error of 4.24%. This statistical tie raises questions about the perceived safety of the state for Democrats and signals potential vulnerabilities for Biden as he gears up for the November election. Notably, when third-party candidates are included, Biden maintains a narrow lead over Trump, though still within the margin of error.

Trump’s campaign has expressed optimism about flipping Virginia, citing these latest figures as evidence of a broader national shift towards the GOP. Trump himself highlighted this momentum in a recent statement, asserting that even longtime blue states are now "in play." On the other hand, Virginia Democrats remain confident, attributing Trump's 2020 loss in the state to his unpopular policies and doubting his campaign's effectiveness this election cycle.

"Donald Trump" by Gage Skidmore licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED.