Quick Hit:

A proposed peace plan by David J. Urban and Mike Pompeo suggests that if re-elected, Donald Trump would bolster Ukraine through a robust defense strategy, stringent sanctions on Russia, and revitalized international alliances.

Key Details:

• Sanctions: Enforcing genuine sanctions on Russia, including energy sector restrictions.

• Defense: Strengthening NATO and enhancing U.S. defense industry capabilities.

• Aid: Establishing a $500 billion "lend-lease" program for Ukraine.

Diving Deeper:

In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, David J. Urban and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo outline a comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine under a potential second term for Donald Trump. They argue that Trump's approach would differ markedly from the Biden administration’s current policies, which they claim have been ineffective.

Urban and Pompeo state, “There’s no evidence that such capitulation will be part of President Trump’s policy and much evidence to the contrary.” They recall Trump's decision in 2017 to lift the Obama administration’s arms embargo on Ukraine, which provided critical Javelin missiles that helped defend Kyiv. This, they argue, demonstrates Trump’s commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

The authors criticize the Biden administration, claiming it has “left Ukraine where it is today: two years into a full-scale war, with cities destroyed, hundreds of thousands killed, and millions of refugees, and without the means to win.” They propose that Trump could re-establish peace through strength, outlining several key steps:

1. Unleash America’s Energy Potential: Boosting the U.S. economy, reducing prices, and cutting into Putin’s war budget.

2. Rebuild Middle Eastern Alliances: Working with Saudi Arabia and Israel to stabilize the region and diminish Russian influence in global energy markets.

3. Impose Real Sanctions on Russia: Closing loopholes in the current sanctions that allow Russian banks to conduct energy-related transactions.

4. Enhance U.S. Defense Industry: Demonstrating superior defense capabilities to deter adversaries like Russia and China.

5. Revitalize NATO: Increasing European defense spending to 3% of GDP.

6. Create a $500 Billion “Lend-Lease” Program for Ukraine: Enabling Ukraine to borrow funds for purchasing American weapons, akin to U.S. support for Britain during WWII.

7. Lift Restrictions on Weapons for Ukraine: Allowing Ukraine to obtain and use all necessary weapons to force an end to the war.

Urban and Pompeo suggest that these steps would allow Trump to negotiate a favorable peace deal, ensuring Ukraine's defense capability and preventing further Russian aggression. They emphasize that any agreement would include no recognition of Russia's territorial claims and would require Russia to pay reparations from its frozen central-bank reserves.

The authors conclude that this plan would “end the war, establish a lasting peace, ensure Europe bears the burden of maintaining it, and re-establish freedom and security on the Continent.” They argue that Trump’s focus would be on avoiding foreign-policy failures, unlike Biden’s mishandling of the Afghanistan withdrawal.