Quick Hit:

A new I&I/TIPP poll highlights a dramatic 28-point decline in support for President Joe Biden among Black Americans since the 2020 election, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment.

Key Details:

• In the 2020 presidential election, 87% of Black voters supported Biden, but recent figures show only 59% now do, reflecting a 28% drop.
• Former President Donald Trump has increased his support among Black voters from 12% in 2020 to 15% today.
• The poll also notes Biden's decreased support among Hispanic and independent voters, with Trump leading significantly among independents in scenarios including third-party candidates.

Diving Deeper:

President Joe Biden is facing waning support within crucial demographics that previously secured his victory in 2020, according to a new I&I/TIPP poll released Monday. This stark decrease is most notable among Black voters, where Biden’s approval has plummeted by 28 points, descending from 87% during the 2020 elections to just 59% in the current survey. 

The same survey, which portrays a head-to-head tie between Biden and Trump, indicates that Trump’s outreach to traditionally Democratic constituencies is resonating, albeit with modest gains. While Trump’s overall gain among Black voters is only 3 points, up to 15%, the significant drop in Biden’s figures suggests a broader shift in voter sentiment.

Additional data from the poll reveals that Biden is also losing ground with Hispanic voters, who now give him just 47% support compared to 65% in 2020. In contrast, Trump's support among Hispanics has slightly increased. Moreover, among independent voters, Trump is ahead of Biden by five points in a direct matchup and eight points when including third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein.

The survey, conducted May 1-3 among 1,264 respondents with a margin of error of +/-2.8 percent, aligns with other polls, including a recent Wall Street Journal survey that also points to rising support for Trump among Black Americans. This growing trend is bolstered by efforts from super PAC MAGA Inc, which has intensified its advertising campaign targeting Black voters in key swing states.